College Football Conference Championship Late Line Movement Best Bets from the T Shoe Index:
We’re just three days away from Selection Sunday and knowing exactly who’s playing who and where in the inaugural edition of the 12-team playoff. Lots of angst among fans and coaches alike (looking at you, Rhett Lashley) heading into this weekend as the debate rages on about who should be in, who should be out, who didn’t drop enough last week, and whether or not teams should be “punished” for losing in their conference championship games. It’ll all get settled on the field, and frankly, if you’re a fan of a 3-loss team complaining your team isn’t getting in – regardless of schedule – maybe tell your team not to lose three games? Anyway, I gave out two early plays on Tuesday, and I’m back with additional conference championship best bet leans in case you want some more skin in the game this weekend.Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State (-5; 57.5)
I know these teams just played a week ago and Western Kentucky won by a last-minute field goal, but I had Jacksonville State favored in that game, and I still have them favored by 5.5 in this rematch for the Conference USA championship. Since settling on a QB after a few games this season, Jacksonville State has been the much more consistent team, and over the last five games has been a touchdown better than Western Kentucky from a power rating standpoint. This game is at Jacksonville State, and coach Rich Rodriguez has the big game experience to have his team ready to play. I missed the -3.5 available early in the week, so this is just a strong lean, but I will be looking to get involved with JSU live, if possible.Conference Championship Best Bet: Lean Jacksonville State -5
Iowa State (+2; 49.5) vs. Arizona State
What a story Arizona State has been this year. As someone who strongly leaned toward their season win total Under 4.5 this year, they have thoroughly proven me wrong, and coach Kenny Dillingham – along with Indiana’s Curt Cignetti – has been the best coach of the season, in my opinion. On the flip side, there’s Iowa State and Matt Campbell, who has gotten plenty of love in coaching circles over the years and finally got his team over the hump and into the Big 12 championship game where they are 2-point underdogs to the Sun Devils. I project Iowa State -4 here, so the discrepancy combined with the line actually moving towards ASU makes me a little weary to all-out buy into the numbers because perhaps there’s something I’m not accounting for. So, I’m going to have a strong lean here on ISU plus the points, and I’ll likely buy if this gets to 3 pregame or live in the first half.Conference Championship Best Bet: Lean Iowa State +2
